CLIMATIC FORCING OF DROUGHTS : A CENTRAL EUROPEAN EXAMPLE

A fuzzy rule-based technique is used for modelling the relationship between climatic forcing and droughts in central/eastern European country. Two types of climatic forcing-called premises are considered: atmospheric circu-lation patterns and ENSO. The ENSO signal is relatively weak in a statistical sense. The palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and results are in a proper reproduction of the empirical frequency distributions. The validation set is used to check how the application of fuzzy rules reproduces the observed PDSI (2003/05/12)