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Les Documents de travail Atelier 1 |
ANTICIPER LES CRISES DE L'EAU : la nécessité de l'approche prospective
J. Margat & D. Vallée, Plan Bleu pour la Méditerranée
CENTRE
D'ACTIVITÉS RÉGIONALES DU PLAN BLEU POUR LA MÉDITERRANÉE /
PNUE
PLAN D'ACTION POUR LA MÉDITERRANÉE
15, rue Ludwig Van Beethoven - Sophia Antipolis
06560 Valbonne - France
Tél. : + 33 4 93 65 39 59
Fax :+ 33 4 93 65 35 28
E-mail : planbleu@planbleu.org
To anticipate water crisis in the XXIst century, long term studies on needs, demands and offers are needed. Prospective appears to be a useful tool to explore the field of possible policies and choose the strategy, assignments and action programmes corresponding to needs while improving water resources and minimising risks. The Blue Plan exercise has demonstrated the usefulness of such an approach and the scenario method in defining Mediterranean economic policies that damage the environment least. But as this recent analysis enlightens the increasing change in patterns of water demands but also the risk of decrease in resources, it calls for a wider, regular and participatory exercise of prospective for the Mediterranean region, one of the most threaten, but also for other regions of the World.